Despite attractive carry trade opportunities due to negative interest rates and a strong currency, the Swiss Franc has historically been a trap for short-sellers.
The Swiss National Bank's interventions and the franc's persistent appreciation have led to losses for those betting against it.
An example of this is Polish citizens taking out mortgages in Swiss Francs due to low interest rates, only to face increased debt burdens when the franc rallied against the Polish Zloty.
The SNB's massive accumulation of reserves and ongoing currency interventions demonstrate the difficulty in weakening the franc.
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Episode notes
Alf and Brent discuss the US dilemma in 2025: should Trump be aggressive out of the gate with tariffs sacrificing growth for foreign policy victories, or should he focus on other priorities allowing Powell to cut rates and facilitate the refinancing of $7 trillion of maturing Treasuries? The duo also discussed the perils and benefits of leverage in trading and investing.
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