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My First Million cover image

The Investment Strategy To Build Generational Wealth (ft. Morgan Housel)

My First Million

NOTE

The Importance of Humility in Economic Forecasting

The main plea in the book is for humility in economic forecasting. The biggest economic stories, such as September 11th, Lehman Brothers collapsing, and COVID, were not foreseen by analysts. Historical events like Pearl Harbor and the Great Depression also took many by surprise. The reality is that the biggest economic story in the future is unpredictable. It's uncomfortable but crucial to admit that we don't know what's going to happen next. Therefore, it's healthier to read more history and fewer forecasts, as focusing on unchanging behaviors and being humble in our ability to predict is key.

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