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AMA: How The Everything Code Changed The World Forever ft. Julien Bittel
Raoul Pal: The Journey Man
Navigating Economic Seasons
Economic conditions can be categorized into distinct phases: macro spring, where growth momentum rebounds amid subdued inflation; macro summer, defined by an inflationary boom with improving growth momentum but a slowing pace of inflation decline; macro fall, characterized by peak growth momentum and accelerating inflation, typically resembling stagflation; and macro winter, where both growth and inflation momentum decline. As of early 2024, the economy is transitioning into macro summer, indicated by improved growth momentum and the recent decline in core PCE inflation to 2.6%. Although lagging and coincident indicators, such as industrial retail sales and unemployment, remain weak, leading indicators like capital goods orders suggest a positive environment for risk assets.
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