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Predicting the next bitcoin peak with Checkmate
The Bitcoin Frontier
Identifying Market Peaks: Key Metrics in Bitcoin Trading
Identifying a peak in Bitcoin trading relies on specific metrics rather than attempting to predict price points or dates. Key indicators include monitoring when long-term holders sell their coins at significant profits, often indicating an overheated market. A top occurs when supply exceeds demand, which can be observed when significant sell-side activity is evident. Metrics such as realized profit, particularly from long-term holders, and the movement of older coins are crucial. Additionally, tracking the overall sentiment of Bitcoin holders through MVRV and AVIV ratios can help gauge when unrealized profits are at their highest. Notably, the HODL waves metric illustrates the percentage of Bitcoin that remains unmoved over a year; a low percentage suggests more selling activity, aligning with potential market tops. Monitoring these behaviors and metrics offers a more reliable framework for understanding the market dynamics rather than speculative price predictions.
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