The 10-Year Cycle High and Stock Performance

The speaker discusses the possibility of a new cycle high for the 10-year treasury yield. They acknowledge volatility in the fixed income market and speculate on potential future movements. They refute the idea that the stock market has already priced in a recession, explaining that there are specific indicators and conditions that need to be met for a new bull market or recession to occur. They cite research indicating that the equity market and corporate credit market are currently not strongly pricing in a recession. Overall, they suggest that the market has not fully anticipated the impact of higher interest rates on the economy.