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It's time for a liquidity masterclass with Michael Howell. Raoul's Everything Code thesis suggests that liquidity is the biggest driver of asset prices across both macro and crypto. Today for all viewers, he welcomes the industry's foremost liquidity expert Michael Howell, founder and CEO of CrossBorder Capital, where global money flows are headed, how this impacts markets, and whether it could push us into the next "Banana Zone." Recorded on June 24, 2024.
This episode is brought to you by TOKEN2049 Singapore. Join over 20,000 attendees for the world's largest crypto event: TOKEN2049 Singapore from 18 to 19 September. Balaji Srinivasan, Solana's Anatoly, Arthur Hayes, and over 250 others will hit the stage, as TOKEN2049 takes over the iconic Marina Bay Sands in Singapore. With over 500 side events during TOKEN2049 Week, Singapore will transform into a crypto hub from 16 to 22 September, capped off by AFTER 2049, and the Formula 1 Grand Prix race weekend. Everyone will be there β this is the one event you can't miss this year.
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Sponsor: Token2049 event in Singapore
00:51 - Importance of subscribing and engaging with the channel
01:19 - Raoul Pal introduces his show "The Journeyman"
01:52 - Overview of Raoul Pal's "Everything Code" thesis
02:26 - Explanation of the debt refi cycle and liquidity's role
03:01 - Discussion with Mike Howell on liquidity
03:38 - Mike Howell's background and framework on liquidity
05:17 - Evolution of global liquidity concept
07:27 - Current liquidity frameworks and key metrics
10:39 - Dominance of liquidity in markets since the mid-2000s
12:13 - Correlation between global liquidity and market performance
15:11 - Importance of term premium and its impact on bond markets
17:14 - Liquidity's effect on P/E ratios and market dynamics
18:17 - Central banks' role in maintaining liquidity and managing debt
21:22 - Differentiating between monetary inflation and deflation crises
23:22 - The significance of debt refinancing in financial crises
25:38 - Various sources of liquidity in the US
27:39 - Treasury General Account and its impact on liquidity
28:42 - Discussion on the dollar milkshake theory and dollar strength
31:45 - China's role and challenges in the global liquidity landscape
33:52 - Janet Yellen's strategies to add liquidity
36:04 - Potential impact of Fannie Mae's changes on liquidity
39:28 - Challenges faced by China's economy and the need for liquidity
41:30 - Basel 4 and its implications for banks and bond markets
43:36 - Europe's green energy transition and its impact on liquidity
44:32 - Potential risks and opportunities in the French banking sector
45:00 - Likelihood of central banks using their balance sheets
46:38 - Forecast for the liquidity cycle in the next few years
50:44 - Prospects for risk assets in a sluggish economy
51:20 - Expected peak of the liquidity cycle and underlying trends
56:03 - Historical parallels with post-World War II debt cycles
57:01 - Necessity of liquidity for economic stability and growth
59:09 - Central banks' understanding of the global debt situation
1:00:05 - Importance of monitoring liquidity and potential future trends
Connect with me:
Twitter (X): https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI
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LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/raoul-pal-real-vision/
Newsletter: https://raoulpal.substack.com
My other work:
Real Vision: https://rvtv.io/3LHYIaH
Global Macro Investor: https://globalmacroinvestor.com
EXPAAM: https://expaam.com
Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf
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