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Danny Dayan: Reacceleration Risk Threatens Bond Market, Demographics In U.S. Are Inflationary (Not Deflationary)
Forward Guidance
Choosing Annualized Inflation Over Three-Month Data for Setting Policy
Setting policy based on the three-month annualized inflation rate is considered a nonsense argument. It is better to focus on the annual annualized inflation rate as the economy fluctuates throughout the year. While the PCE has been contained, core CPI shows a significant increase, suggesting a divergence that should be analyzed. The Fed is advised to take their time in determining the neutral rate, which is likely higher than two and a half percent. The economy will provide signals if the policy is restrictive.
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