Prepare for Failure to Manage Risk

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A balance between optimism and skepticism is crucial in entrepreneurship. Entrepreneurs should be emotionally prepared for failure to avoid negative surprises and manage reactions effectively. Risks in any venture—financial, technological, competitive—are inherent, and while these can diminish over time, early investors face higher risks and thus expect greater returns. As a company matures and risks are mitigated, later investors face reduced risks, which results in higher valuations but lower expected returns. The initial understanding of risk and value dynamics can inform strategic decisions in business development.

Josh Wolfe, co-founder and managing partner at Lux Capital, is a master at quickly understanding complex, emerging technologies. In our conversation, Josh shared how he identifies the next big thing, his contrarian views on nuclear energy, biotech, and robotics, as well as his thoughts on the state of the venture capital market today.

(00:00) Intro

(01:02) Daily News Routine

(05:28) Geopolitical Insights

(07:03) Competitiveness and Curiosity

(11:01) Investment Strategies and Risks

(26:07) The Control Labs Story

(33:48) The Founder’s Dilemma: Financial vs. Strategic Motivations

(34:33) Geopolitical Concerns: Iran and Global Politics

(36:31) Investments in Defense: Controversies and Convictions

(37:36) The State of Society: Happiness and Social Dynamics

(48:07) Artificial Intelligence: Trends and Predictions

(01:02:22) The Future of Robotics: Beyond Humanoids

(01:06:46) Ethical Implications of AI and Defense Technologies

(01:11:29) Lux Capital’s Investment Strategy and LP Relations

(01:12:43) ESG and Moral Impositions

(01:13:30) Defense and Complex Moral Valences

(01:14:19) Investment Ethics and Decision Making

(01:16:46) Venture Capital Market Outlook

(01:17:56) Challenges in Venture Capital

(01:37:12) The Role of Storytelling in Venture Capital

(01:43:20) Personal Reflections and Background

(01:51:34) Partnership Dynamics and Trust

(01:53:48) Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Executive Producer: Rashad Assir

Producer: Leah Clapper

Mixing and editing: Justin Hrabovsky

Check out Unsupervised Learning, Redpoint's AI Podcast: https://www.youtube.com/@UCUl-s_Vp-Kkk_XVyDylNwLA

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About the Show

Logan Bartlett is a Software Investor at Redpoint Ventures - a Silicon Valley-based VC with $6B AUM and investments in Snowflake, DraftKings, Twilio, and Netflix. In each episode, Logan goes behind the scenes with world-class entrepreneurs and investors. If you're interested in the real inside baseball of tech, entrepreneurship, and start-up investing, tune in every Friday for new episodes.