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Is It Time To Be Bullish? | Weekly Roundup
Supply Shock
Redrawing Export Partners and Effects on China
The weakening of the Japanese yen compared to the Chinese yuan is leading to a shift in export partners, with the US potentially moving towards buying more from Japan than China. This shift is contributing to deflationary pressures in China, causing overcapacity issues and a need for China to weaken the yuan to remain competitive. This change may establish a new regime where Japan becomes a stronger export powerhouse relative to China. The scenario could prompt the US to devalue the dollar and rebuild its manufacturing capacity.
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