Forecasting Transformative AI using biological anchors

The 2020 report on Forecasting Transformative AI using biological anchors initially predicted a 50% chance of achieving transformational AI comparable to human intelligence by 2050. However, developments such as GPT-4, Google's Bard, and anthropics Claude have accelerated progress. The new prediction suggests that this milestone may be reached by the late 2030s. The speaker highlights the inherent unpredictability of AI development, noting the history of inaccurate predictions in the field.