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63. Peter Atwater: The Confidence Map
Investing Unscripted
"The Overconfidence Bingo Card" and Assessing Market Behavior
The overconfidence bingo card is a checklist of indicators that can help identify when a company or industry is experiencing extreme confidence and hubris. By noticing behaviors such as excessive debt, new purchases, and large mergers, investors can gauge the likelihood of a major peak. On the other hand, panic can serve as an objective indicator of rapidly approaching low confidence. However, it's important to remember that these indicators exist on a continuum rather than as binary outcomes. While outliers may exist, certain periods of hubris, like the 2009 lows and the crypto mania of 2021, are easily identifiable in hindsight.
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