First Principles with Christian Keil cover image

#2: Casey Handmer - Pulling Methane From Thin Air (Terraform Industries)

First Principles with Christian Keil

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Economies of Scale and Price Reduction in Solar Power Production

The cost of solar power has decreased due to economies of scale in production. The price reduction trend was discovered during the Second World War. The relationship between cumulative production and price follows a logarithmic pattern, leading to reduced costs as production increases. Solar power production is relatively simple, with a learning rate of around 35%, meaning that every time production is doubled, the cost decreases by 35%. Humanity is currently doubling solar power production every two years, leading to significant yearly increases in deployment. By 2030, it is projected that solar power production will continue to increase at an accelerated rate due to advancements and efficiency in production.

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