The Illusion of Confidence with Data

Increasing the amount of data provided to professional gamblers or tipsters does not improve the accuracy of their predictions, but instead, it amplifies their overconfidence. Despite receiving more data points, the accuracy of their predictions remains consistent, but their confidence levels surge significantly with each additional piece of data. This phenomenon highlights the deceptive nature of confidence when coupled with an abundance of information, as it does not necessarily enhance predictive abilities but rather inflates the individual's perceived certainty, leading to potentially reckless decision-making.