When we're happy at home, we tend not to seek conflict abroad. However, when we're unhappy at home, we tend to look for conflict abroad. This is reflected in history, especially in democracies. The author wonders if we are currently unhappy at home, citing the book 'The Changing World Order' by Riddaglio. They also question why Donald Trump is leading in the polls, suggesting that his popularity may be tied to the unhappiness and interest in external conflict among the populist sentiment in the country.

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