Forecasting Inflation: Balancing Policies and Outcomes

Understanding the future of inflation requires analyzing potential political outcomes and their economic policies. If Harris is elected, expect slight inflation increases due to fiscal policies, while a Trump presidency could cause more significant inflation due to tariffs and deregulation efforts. The mean scenario suggests inflation could rise between 1% to 1.5% within a year without recession. The Fed's approach could include vague warnings about economic fundamentals and adjusting forecasts to account for various political scenarios, incorporating undisclosed variables to mitigate bias in their projections.