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Predicting Replication Outcomes in Psychology Studies
Researchers conducted a study where participants bet on the replication outcomes of various psychology studies, finding that 71% of the time, the market successfully predicted the replication outcome. This result suggests that psychologists can identify which studies are likely to be hard to replicate, even if true. The study highlights the discrepancy between original studies and replication attempts, implying a need to reevaluate the significance of original findings when replication fails.