
Episode 33: Probability (and Tom's new book)
The Studies Show
Bayes's Big Insight and Inferential Probability
Bayes's big insight was that any new information must be integrated with existing information for inferential probability. Probability is subjective as it depends on the available information. Statements about probabilities reflect our knowledge or lack thereof about the world. Assessing probabilities involves considering all available information, including the context and potential biases of the source providing the information.
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