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Russell Napier On The Rise And Fall Of The Age Of Debt And China’s Choice Between Deflation and Devaluation

Forward Guidance

NOTE

The Terminal Value of Foreign Investments in China

The speaker believes that ultimately the terminal value for foreigners' investments in China is zero, similar to Sperbank having a zero ruble price. Despite over six trillion US dollars invested in China by foreigners, comprising direct and liquid investments, it is anticipated that it will be challenging to sell these investments and convert them into dollars. This substantial commitment of foreign investors in China contrasts with the optical perception of cheap investments like Alibaba, Tencent, and JD.com by fund managers, emphasizing a potential lack of true value and terminal worth in these investments.

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