There's No Bull Case For Risk Assets
The Macro Trading Floor
Is the US Economy in a Recession?
It would be the first time in history with the set of leading indicators that we have from the US that would not end up in a recession. I can't rule it out, but it's very unlikely and you are basically waiting for an accident effectively. There are really two viable options either the fettest to choke the economy for longer because It takes longer than people expect for nominal spending to draw down which will make it faster. But however as lies and dies this I ask myself If the two outcomes are both nonlinear, so you need a very tight fed until something actually Happens or you need something to happen anyway earlier a recession.
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