Correlation Does Not Imply Causation

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Abstainers may appear less healthy not due to the lack of alcohol, but because they might have been unhealthy prior to quitting. This highlights a reversal in understanding cause and effect, as moderate drinkers may seem healthier not because of alcohol consumption, but because they are inherently a healthier demographic. Without considering this factor, one might incorrectly attribute health benefits to moderate drinking, overlooking the pre-existing health status of abstainers.

For the regular drinker it is a source of great comfort: the fat pile of studies that say a daily tipple is better for a longer life than avoiding alcohol completely. But a new analysis challenges that thinking and says it was based on flawed research that compares drinkers with people who are sick and sober. Madeleine Finlay hears from the study’s lead author, Tim Stockwell, a scientist at the Canadian Institute for Substance Use Research at the University of Victoria, to find out why scientists (including him) were so convinced, and what the actual risks of alcohol are. Help support our independent journalism at theguardian.com/sciencepod