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Metaphysics of Mattering | John Vervaeke on Life’s Deep Connections

Dr. John Vervaeke

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Navigating Bias: The Trade-off of Prediction

Prediction involves determining characteristics of a population based on a sample. Two types of sampling bias exist: underfitting, where important aspects of the population are missed, and overfitting, where inferences from the sample are inaccurately generalized to the population. Addressing these biases creates a trade-off—enhancing sensitivity to avoid missing elements can lead to increased errors, while reducing errors may result in missed elements. The decision on how to balance these biases hinges on the context's relevance to misses or mistakes. Additionally, the process of formalization cannot be entirely formalized itself, highlighting a deep complexity in addressing real-world problems, which can be conceptualized along a spectrum of binary distinctions.

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