Against Bayesianism — David Deutsch
The Joe Walker Podcast
00:00
*When Bayesianism is unnecessary *
Toby Ord's book, The Precipice, estimates the chance of an existential catastrophe befalling humanity in the next 100 years is 1 in 6./nDavid does not recommend using base rates to estimate the probability of existential risks and prioritize which ones to address./nIn some cases, probabilities can be known through good explanations, such as the probability of an asteroid from the asteroid belt hitting the earth in the next thousand years.
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