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Measuring everything that matters (with Doug Hubbard)
Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg
The Inconsistency of Human Judgment
Human judgment is often inconsistent due to various biases and errors, with personal inconsistency explaining about 20% of the variation in judgments. Factors like mood, recent experiences, and external influences can significantly impact decisions, such as risk tolerance being affected by irrelevant external factors like exposure to smiling faces or recalling past emotions. Experimental setups have shown that even subtle changes, like displaying smiling faces, can alter decision-making behavior. Ultimately, human decisions can be influenced by irrational and unpredictable factors, leading to variations in judgment.
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