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Leopold Aschenbrenner - China/US Super Intelligence Race, 2027 AGI, & The Return of History
Dwarkesh Podcast
Maximizing AI Integration
Reaching a revenue of 100 billion a year from AI is feasible for big tech companies, especially through the integration of AI products for services like Microsoft Office subscribers. AI progress is expected to surpass the intelligence of most college graduates by 2026, leading to economic usefulness and enhanced productivity. The trajectory points towards AGI by around 2027-2028, transforming AI systems into agents that are akin to drop-in remote workers. The gradual integration of intermediate AI systems can be challenging and time-consuming, requiring significant workflow changes. However, leveraging more advanced AGI models can simplify integration and enhance productivity, suggesting that overkill on model capabilities may be necessary for smooth transitions and maximizing gains.
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