Focus on things that will stay the same no matter what

Predicting the future is notoriously difficult because people often concentrate on variables that are likely to change, such as new technologies or political outcomes. Instead, focusing on aspects of human behavior that have remained consistent over centuries provides better insight into future trends. Recognizing that fundamental emotional responses like greed and fear are immutable over time allows for a clearer understanding of potential future scenarios. A useful perspective is to consider what would hold true across numerous iterations of one's life; identifying these constants can guide decisions that are less susceptible to randomness or external influences.

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Brought to you by Cometeer delicious hyper-fresh, flash-frozen coffee; Momentous high-quality supplements; and LinkedIn Jobs recruitment platform with 900M+ users.

Morgan Housel (@morganhousel) is a partner at The Collaborative Fund. His book The Psychology of Money has sold more than three million copies and has been translated into 53 languages.

He is a two-time winner of the Best in Business Award from the Society of American Business Editors and Writers and winner of the New York Times Sidney Award. In 2022, MarketWatch named him one of the 50 most influential people in markets. He serves on the board of directors at Markel.

Morgan’s new book is Same As Ever: A Guide to What Never Changes. You can find my first, widely popular interview with Morgan at tim.blog/morganhousel.

Please enjoy!

This episode is brought to you by Cometeer! Cometeer is hyper-fresh, expertly brewed, flash-frozen coffee that produces an incredibly delicious cup. Cometeer lets you prepare your coffee with no mess, no machines, no burning, and no bitterness. Cometeer sources high-quality beans from the country’s top roasters. The coffee is brewed using proprietary technology to pull out more flavor compounds and antioxidants. It’s then flash-frozen at minus 321 degrees Fahrenheit to lock in that incredible flavor and freshness of the specialty brew. Simply add hot water and you’ve got a game-changing cup of coffee. It’s easily customizable in seconds for iced coffees, lattes, espresso martinis, and more.

Order today at Cometeer.com/Tim, and listeners of this podcast will also receive a FREE 8-pack of Barista’s Choice, a rotating selection of limited-edition specialty roasts from world-class roaster partners like George Howell, Onyx, and Intelligentsia—names many of you will recognize.

This episode is also brought to you by Momentous high-quality supplements! Momentous offers high-quality supplements and products across a broad spectrum of categories, and I’ve been testing their products for months now. I’ve been using their magnesium threonate, apigenin, and L-theanine daily, all of which have helped me improve the onset, quality, and duration of my sleep. I’ve also been using Momentous creatine, and while it certainly helps physical performance, including poundage or wattage in sports, I use it primarily for mental performance (short-term memory, etc.).

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[07:20] Buffett’s Snickers.

[12:21] What prompted Morgan to write Same As Ever?

[17:44] Morgan’s worst advice for aspiring writers is what works for him.

[21:48] The upsides of being rich and anonymous.

[26:35] Tips for raising unspoiled kids.

[33:19] Should families avoid passing along dynastic wealth?

[35:45] Finding worthy charities and causes.

[41:02] Money and happiness.

[48:37] Avalanches and other random, life-changing flukes.

[54:32] We can prepare for the future, but we can’t predict it.

[1:00:58] What current unknowns will seem shockingly obvious in a year?

[1:03:22] Which of our current views would change if our incentives were different?