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Measuring everything that matters (with Doug Hubbard)
Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg
Statistical Models vs Human Experts
Paul Meale and Philip Tatlock found that in various studies spanning over several years, statistical models consistently outperformed human experts in various fields such as disease prognosis, sporting event outcomes, loan repayment predictions, criminal recidivism, and more. Out of over 150 studies, only a handful showed humans performing as well as statistical models, which could be attributed to chance. Philip Tatlock's research with 284 experts over 20 years in political, military, economics, and technology trends also concluded that human experts did not outperform statistical models. Both researchers agreed that there was no domain where humans consistently outperformed statistical algorithms.
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