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The Great Liquidity Debate | Michael Howell & Andy Constan
Forward Guidance
Analyzing the Correlation Between Fed Liquidity and the S&P 500
The speaker discusses a simplified model of Fed liquidity and its correlation with the S&P 500. They critique the analysis, citing red flags and highlighting the difference between correlations of levels and changes. They emphasize that while there is a correlation, it is weak and lacks predictive value. The speaker concludes that the relationship between bank reserves and financial markets is not as strong as commonly believed.
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