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Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time)
Forward Guidance
Chinese economy and trade surplus impact
China's budget deficit stems from financial aid, despite growing incomes and weak employment. Local governments struggle as traditional revenue sources like land sales decline. The service sector in China is weak, with cautious spending and reduced tourism. Chinese export surplus leads to aggressive dumping on the global market, affecting international competitors. High savings rates among Chinese citizens contribute to the trade surplus, but low domestic spending hinders economic balance and growth.
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