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Globalization vs. Innovation
"Live Players" with Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg
Geopolitical Fragmentation and Emerging Powers
The geopolitical landscape is witnessing signs of fragmentation as established powers, like China and the European Union, reach the limits of their territorial and influence expansion. While China may achieve a modest increase in its sphere of influence, internal conflicts, particularly between major cities like Shanghai and Beijing, hinder significant growth. The European Union appears unlikely to expand, particularly regarding the integration of Eastern European nations and the United Kingdom, which is expected to maintain its current globalized but non-aligned status without forming new trade blocs. In this context, the United States may experience a consolidation of its leadership role within the current world order rather than re-establishing hegemonic dominance. Rising powers in Africa and the prospect of a younger demographic could pose challenges to the U.S.'s role as these nations achieve development and industrialization. The likelihood of a return to a unipolar world seems distant, as both the U.S. and China face limitations in their influence. Network states could emerge as viable entities, particularly in Europe, Africa, and the Middle East, thriving amidst the potential fragmentation. The American system's stability, in contrast to Europe’s, suggests that any significant shifts will be more restrained. Opportunities may arise from movements for independence or digital citizenship; however, political and military contexts must be favorable for their success. Lastly, the rise of populism, akin to Trumpism in America and its European counterparts, presents a question of future influence, posing potential disruptions to globalization versus possible adaptability towards intensified international cooperation on trade and immigration.
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