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Navigating the Economic Seasons
The economic landscape is transitioning from a 'macro spring' characterized by a disinflationary boom, where growth momentum is rebounding despite subdued inflation, to a 'macro summer' marked by an inflationary boom. Although inflation continues to decline in year-on-year terms, the pace of this decline is slowing, indicating rising inflation momentum, which acts as a critical pricing mechanism for risk assets. Next year's economic forecasts suggest a potential 'fall' phase, where growth peaks while inflation continues to accelerate, raising concerns of stagflation. In contrast, 'macro winter' describes periods of declining growth and inflation, reminiscent of the economic conditions experienced in 2022 until late in the year.