Viktor Shvets on How the Fed Has Become a Prisoner of Its Own Making
Odd Lots
00:00
Focus on Global Growth and Primary Deficits for Economic Outlook
The speaker predicts no recessions in the US or globally, attributing it to the absence of a need for recovery due to stable demand and supply curves. Global growth rates are expected to be around 2 to 2.5%, lower than previous decades. The argument suggests that inflation should decrease without needing a recession or spikes in unemployment. However, this stability comes at the cost of reduced recovery, leading to a circular stagnation globally. The primary deficits in countries, particularly the US with the highest deficits, will influence their economic outlook, with higher deficits pushing up neutral rates compared to countries like the European monetary union or Japan.
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