The Limitations of Predicting the Future

We often rely on predictive models to anticipate the future, but the reality is that our ability to predict is limited. If we could predict the future, we would have seen unexpected events like COVID-19 coming. In business, we optimize for a specific future, sacrificing safety margins in the process. However, maintaining buffers and slack allows us to adapt when things don't go as planned. Although being prepared for multiple futures may seem suboptimal in the short term, it ultimately leads to long-term success. CEOs, with their short tenures, often prioritize short-term gains over long-term perspective. This dynamic raises an interesting discussion.