Importance of Skepticism and Contingency Planning in Predictions

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It's crucial to acknowledge the possibility of being wrong in our predictions and not get too invested in our beliefs about the future. Realizing that the future is a mental creation helps to emphasize the need for skepticism in our predictions. Scientific approach involves explicitly attempting to falsify predictions, which is a valuable practice. It's important to consider both optimistic and pessimistic conclusions about the future and to take contingency planning seriously, as it is a skill provided by evolution.

One of the most powerful of all human capacities is the ability to imagine ourselves in hypothetical situations at different times. We can remember the past, but also conjure up possible futures that haven’t yet happened. This simple ability underlies our capability to organize socially and make contracts with other people. Today’s guest, psychologist Adam Bulley, argues that it’s the primary feature that makes us recognizably human, as he argues in the new book The Invention of Tomorrow: A Natural History of Foresight (with Thomas Suddendorf and Jonathan Redshaw).

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Adam Bulley received his Ph.D. in psychology from the University of Queensland. He is currently a postdoctoral fellow at the Brain and Mind Centre and School of Psychology, The University of Sydney, and the Department of Psychology at Harvard University.

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