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Nouriel Roubini's Vision for a New Safe Haven Asset
Odd Lots
Shift from Great Moderation to Stagflation
- The era of low growth and inflation ("Great Moderation") is ending.
- Supply-side factors (geopolitical fragmentation, deglobalization, climate change, etc.) and demand-side pressures (high debt, increased spending on defense, climate, pandemics, etc.) are contributing to stagflation.
- These factors are reducing growth and increasing inflation, making traditional portfolio balancing strategies less effective.
- Increased spending combined with limited revenue-raising capacity will lead to larger structural budget deficits.
- Investors need new diversification strategies to navigate this changing economic landscape.
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