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Debt, Demographics & Deflation Ahead | Raoul Pal

The Macro Trading Floor

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What Do You Think?

I think we're at the turning point. If I look at the forward-looking indicators that I use like my financial conditions index and a whole bunch of Chinese credit conditions, they're all signifying that the bottom of the cycle is probably in Q1. Now, where's terminal Fed funds? I don't know, I'm guessing somewhere between four and four and a half. So, when does inflation get below that? Every forward-looking indicator I've got from inflation looks like it falls through Fed funds by about March, April. And Yellen's already talked about their talk to the regulators to see what they can change. if not, it's the treasury buybacks or increasing

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