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Nassim Taleb | Why You Should Embrace Uncertainty

The James Altucher Show

Exploring the Relationship Between Events, Risk, and Exposure

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Understanding risk involves considering the interplay between events, risk, and exposure. Traders strive to predict rare events by applying normal curves to make them computable. However, the focus should be on how events impact individuals rather than predicting them. The conflation of events and exposure is often misconstrued. It's crucial to differentiate between the probability of events occurring and the risk posed by these events. For instance, owning out-of-the-money puts on a crashing stock market can mitigate the risk, showcasing the significance of exposure over predicting events. By focusing on reducing liabilities and structuring contracts effectively, traders can manage risk more effectively. The emphasis should be on understanding exposure and managing it rather than solely focusing on predicting events.

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