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Fooled By Randomness
What You Will Learn
Investing Success Increases Over Time
In investment, the probability of achieving positive returns significantly increases over longer timeframes. With an average annual return of 15% and a volatility of 10%, the likelihood of having a profitable year stands at 93%. This probability remains high on a quarterly basis at 77% and monthly at 67%, while daily returns drop to 54%. Checking returns minute-by-minute yields only a marginally better-than-even chance of 50.2%, emphasizing that consistent investment over extended periods enhances success.
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