Fooled By Randomness
What You Will Learn
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Investing Success Increases Over Time
In investment, the probability of achieving positive returns significantly increases over longer timeframes. With an average annual return of 15% and a volatility of 10%, the likelihood of having a profitable year stands at 93%. This probability remains high on a quarterly basis at 77% and monthly at 67%, while daily returns drop to 54%. Checking returns minute-by-minute yields only a marginally better-than-even chance of 50.2%, emphasizing that consistent investment over extended periods enhances success.
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