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What Really Goes Into the Fed's Favorite Measure of Inflation?

Odd Lots

NOTE

Analyzing Residual Seasonality Trends

Residual seasonality trends in economic data typically show stronger Q1 data driven by core goods. However, this year, the strength was in services categories rather than traditional goods, leading to a unique trend. This deviation from the norm suggests a need for caution moving forward as the usual seasonal patterns may not be reliable predictors.

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