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“Accident Brewing” | Neil Dutta on Rising Slowdown Risks And Why He Thinks The Fed Will Cut Sooner Rather Than Later
Forward Guidance
Analyzing Labor Market Data and Economic Indicators
Examining a broad range of data points related to the labor market reveals two key aspects: the level of activity (e.g., unemployment rate, wage growth) and momentum indicators (e.g., employment growth rate). The labor market momentum appears to be weakening, evident from indicators like initial jobless claims increasing and hiring rates declining. Furthermore, the analysis suggests that if economic growth slows, there is a risk of further rises in the unemployment rate, prompting potential preemptive policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve. Survey data, like the ISM and PMI, indicates a slowdown in the economy, although not a drastic decline.
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