Defaulting to the Outside View for Imperfect Information

The outside view should be favored when holding information that places one in their own reference class, indicating superior knowledge. In such cases, seeking other reference classes may not be necessary. However, for individuals with imperfect information or lacking a strong inside view, defaulting to the outside view, considering all similar cases, may be more appropriate. Despite the natural inclination towards the inside view, it is essential to recognize the value of defaulting to the outside view, as highlighted by Danny Kahneman's insights.