Selecting the Best Opportunities as a Macro Investor

As a macro investor, the advantage lies in being able to choose the trades that align with the best opportunities while avoiding those that do not. It is not necessary to trade every market or consider every possibility; the focus should be on identifying the most favorable opportunities. Initially, the outlook for the year suggested fewer interest rate cuts in the US, leading to expectations of rising bond yields and stock outperformance. However, within six weeks, market pricing changed significantly, showing only three cuts priced in instead of seven, indicating a substantial shift in a short period. This adjustment prompts reconsideration of interest rate policy, hinting at potential economic strength and higher inflation. Ultimately, it is crucial to avoid trading on fine distinctions such as whether there will be two or three interest rate cuts.