Civilization Failures and Extractive Forces

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Civilizations throughout history have ultimately failed, marked by technological regression, population decline, and wealth reduction. This pattern raises doubts about the uniqueness of contemporary civilizations. A key insight revolves around the loss of social capacities, which can impact a civilization's resilience. Additionally, two competing forces influence societal evolution: extractive forces, which siphon resources and wealth from individuals or communities, and growth forces, which foster productivity and advancement. The balance between these forces determines societal decline or progression, indicating that while the loss of social capacities and the impact of extractive forces are distinct concepts, they are interrelated and collectively affect the trajectory of civilization.

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What is "long" history? Why don't historians usually focus on what happened before recorded human history? What (if anything) is special about agriculture when it comes to the development of civilization? How far back does human civilization go, and why should we care? Have humans always been gardeners? What factors cause civilizations to crumble or thrive? Should we reboot standardized tests and college admissions every few decades so that measures don't become targets? Which destructive factors are particularly salient to modern human civilization? Why is there such a disconnect between our intuition that progress is inevitable and our knowledge that virtually all civilizations have collapsed in the past? In other words, what makes us think that we'll succeed where others have failed? How does a functional social institution differ from a failing one? What is the "great founder" theory?

Samo Burja is the founder of Bismarck Analysis, a consulting firm that investigates the political and institutional landscape of society; a research fellow at the Long Now Foundation; and a senior research fellow in political science at the Foresight Institute. Samo's studies focus on the social and material technologies that provide the foundation for healthy human societies, with an eye to engineering and restoring the structures that produce functional institutions. He has authored articles and papers on his findings. His manuscript, Great Founder Theory, is available online. You can find him on Twitter at @samoburja, on YouTube at @samoburja, or on his website, samoburja.com.

Staff