"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg cover image

E81: Status, Sacred, and Neglected Truths with Robin Hanson

"Upstream" with Erik Torenberg

NOTE

Innovation's Decline Meets Insular Growth

The ongoing decline in fertility rates is identified as a persistent trend with significant long-term implications for population dynamics and economic activity. As fertility continues to fall, it leads to a peaking and eventual decline in population. This population decrease correlates with a notable halt in innovation, driven by the shrinking base of active participants in the economy. The analysis indicates that innovation is closely linked to current activity levels in relation to historical activity, and during periods of population decline, the rate of innovation diminishes significantly. The possibility of reversing fertility decline may primarily hinge on the practices of insular cultures, such as the Amish or Orthodox Jews, who exhibit resistance to broader societal innovations. These subcultures could thrive in a low-innovation context but risk becoming out of touch with faster-paced innovation when the opportunity arises again, highlighting a complex interplay between cultural insularity and the sustainable advancement of innovation.

00:00
Transcript
Play full episode

Remember Everything You Learn from Podcasts

Save insights instantly, chat with episodes, and build lasting knowledge - all powered by AI.
App store bannerPlay store banner