The Pitfalls of Using Mathematical Factors for Long-Term Estimation

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Relying on mathematical factors for long-term estimates can lead to misleading conclusions due to the complexities of variables involved. Attempting to quantify vague concepts results in impractical calculations, as these factors often represent extreme numbers that are difficult to estimate accurately. Simplified calculations, like projecting the future population based on optimistic scenarios, can obscure vital uncertainties and nuances, such as the potential for current decisions to be reversed over time. A more nuanced approach is necessary, incorporating a discount for long-term impact and acknowledging the challenges of influencing future generations. By shifting the focus from simplistic multiplicative factors to realistic assessments of influence over time, one can derive more meaningful insights and comparisons related to long-term issues.

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What's the best way to think about building an impactful career? Should everyone try to work in fields related to existential risks? Should people find work in a problem area even if they can't work on the very "best" solution within that area? What does it mean for a particular job or career path to be a "good fit" for someone? What is "career capital"? To what extent should people focus on developing transferable skills? What are some of the most useful cross-domain skills? To what extent should people allow their passions and interests to influence how they think about potential career paths? Are there formulas that can be used to estimate how impactful a career will be for someone? And if there are, then how might people misuse them? Should everyone aim to build a high-leverage career? When do people update too much on new evidence?

Benjamin Hilton is a research analyst at 80,000 Hours, where he's written on a range of topics from career strategy to nuclear war and the risks from artificial intelligence. He recently helped re-write the 80,000 Hours career guide alongside its author and 80,000 Hours co-founder, Ben Todd. Before joining 80,000 Hours, he was a civil servant, working as a policy adviser across the UK government in the Cabinet Office, Treasury, and Department for International Trade. He has master’s degrees in economics and theoretical physics, and has published in the fields of physics, history, and complexity science. Learn more about him on the 80,000 Hours website, or email him at benjamin.hilton@80000hours.org.

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