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Russell Napier On The Rise And Fall Of The Age Of Debt And China’s Choice Between Deflation and Devaluation

Forward Guidance

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The Unprecedented Rise of Debt in China

Intervening to support the exchange would cause China's reserves to shrink, showing a clear link between monetary policy, narrow money quantity, and foreign exchange reserves. A high GDP growth rate would lead to import growth, impacting the country's economy. China is growing with more debt than money, particularly non-bank debt, leading to a historic rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio, unparalleled in peacetime for a major economy.

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