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Russell Napier On The Rise And Fall Of The Age Of Debt And China’s Choice Between Deflation and Devaluation

Forward Guidance

NOTE

The Unprecedented Rise of Debt in China

Intervening to support the exchange would cause China's reserves to shrink, showing a clear link between monetary policy, narrow money quantity, and foreign exchange reserves. A high GDP growth rate would lead to import growth, impacting the country's economy. China is growing with more debt than money, particularly non-bank debt, leading to a historic rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio, unparalleled in peacetime for a major economy.

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