Incremental Growth, Exponential Progress

A 2% annual increase in material capacity represents a profound shift in technological progress, vastly outpacing historical advancements. This increase is five times the rate observed before 1870, ten times the rate over several preceding centuries, and fifty times faster than progress made before 1500. In contemporary terms, we achieve more technological growth in a single year than was previously accomplished in a generation prior to 1500 or in a decade from 1500 to 1770. The period from 1870 to 2010, deemed the long 20th century, marks a critical juncture in human history where cumulative advancements in wealth and technology matched those of the preceding 8,000 years. However, despite the unprecedented progress during this time, the narrative also carries a tone of concern and lament, as highlighted in Brad DeLong's analysis.