GOING INFINITE: Michael Lewis Wants to Change Your Mind About Sam Bankman-Fried
The Next Big Idea
**Probabilities Are Not Certainties. Different from radical intuitive judgment **
Probabilistic thinking can be misleading when individuals assign specific probabilities to uncertain events without an accurate basis for those numbers. This reliance on arbitrary figures often leads to overconfidence in those judgments, as it creates a false sense of precision where none exists. Such overconfidence is problematic because it obscures the inherent uncertainties of a situation, revealing that what is presented as probabilistic reasoning may actually be a cover for radical intuitive judgment. This disconnect indicates that the quality of judgment is diminished when individuals mistake subjective assessments for objective probabilities, ultimately resulting in flawed decision-making.
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