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“We’re In Uncharted Territory” | Warren Pies on Treasury Issuance, Housing Market, Oil, And Recession Risk
Forward Guidance
The Impact of Construction on the Labor Market
The construction industry is a key driver of labor growth in the economy, even when other sectors like the existing home market are struggling. Despite a decrease in construction activities, the labor market has remained robust due to long-standing underbuilding of houses since the Global Financial Crisis and reduced immigration during the previous administration. The demographic influx of millennials entering their prime home-buying years has added to the demand for housing. This has resulted in a tight labor market for construction workers, leading to fewer employees than expected based on housing activity. As a result, the decline in construction jobs is a gradual process, illustrating the complexities and delays in shifting labor market dynamics. The current level of job additions, though significant, still falls short compared to past recessions, indicating the resilience and slow evolution of the labor market.
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