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Episode 12: Weekly Roundup 07.10.2023

Peter St Onge Podcast

Empty Office Buildings: The Debt Time Bomb

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Empty office buildings have become a debt time bomb. Owners of office towers and malls are walking away from their debt, leaving billions in mortgage. Cheap debt is the culprit, as it leads to overbuilding and ends in recession and real estate disaster. Commercial real estate prices are plummeting, with offices losing 27%, apartments down 21%, and malls down 18%. Recovery could take years, if at all. Remote work may permanently devalue property in cities, leading to abandoned buildings and defaults. This affects tax revenue and public services, with an urban doom loop emerging. Second-tier cities are also experiencing high vacancy rates and defaults. Europe is not as bad, but higher lending costs are hitting London. Real estate is hit hard by boom-bust cycles, and this time it will be magnified. The debt time bomb will further affect fragile regional banks. The US Constitution is seen as America's superpower, distinguishing it from other countries.

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