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Fed Is Easing Into Major Regime Shift | Darius Dale
Forward Guidance
Labor Income Growth Reflects Strength Amid Supply Dynamics
Private sector labor income is experiencing significant growth, currently increasing at an accelerated rate of 5.3% on a three-month annualized basis, with a year-over-year increase of 4.3%. This trend has been consistent since early 2021, indicating a robust labor market that generates consumer income above the trend level. The labor supply, while contributing to economic growth, has simultaneously led to downward pressure on wages, suggesting that the economy can expand without inflating costs. However, labor supply growth is slowing, emphasizing a disparity where rising unemployment rates do not stem from job losses but rather from labor hoarding practices. Key metrics, such as job openings and hiring rates, reveal that despite declining, the labor market remains tight, challenging traditional correlations with layoffs and signaling an ongoing stability within the private sector.
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